PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS – VOTER MODELING

At Ascend, we use big data to help you make the big decisions on your campaign. In today’s world, everyone has millions of times more computing power in their pocket than the Apollo 11 guidance system that put three astronauts on the moon. Data driven campaigns are winning campaigns.

 

For years, Facebook, Google, Amazon and thousands of other big tech companies have used predictive modeling techniques to advertise and sell you products and services. How have they become multi-billion-dollar empires? Because it WORKS. 

 

Our strategy is to take the same approach to sell your campaign, your ideas and your values to the right audience. Not only can we help you make your message exponentially more impactful, but we save you thousands of dollars across every targeting medium (digital, mail, TV, phones, door-to-door) by helping you to target only the people who will be moved by your campaign messages.

HERE’S HOW IT WORKS…

First, we acquire consumer data from big aggregators who store trillions of data points from millions of companies across the world. This data is collected from every action a person takes online or in stores, like searches, subscriptions, purchases, social media activity, etc. Each person’s consumer data, combined with historical voter data, tells a unique story about their habits, beliefs and preferences. Our job is to look for correlations between data to develop unique ideological profiles for every voter.

Next, we conduct a short call and SMS survey of thousands of voters asking how likely they will be to vote, which candidate they support and what issues are most important to them. We call this our modeling test set and we use it as the control group for your customized modeling project.

Lastly, we have our team of top tier data scientists analyze and classify the data using a series of machine learning techniques (including linear regression, binomial and multinomial logistic regression, gradient boosting, random forest and time series forecasting) to create predictive models with customized scores for every voter in the district. Each model we build is unique to your campaign and will serve as the foundation of your campaign strategy.

MODELING – THE ASCEND PROCESS

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MODELING – AUDIENCE CREATION

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